National seat projections

 
Seats
Change
Conservatives
278
-28
Labour
267
+9
SNP
53
+47
Liberal Democrats
27
-30
DUP
8
0
Plaid Cymru
4
+1
SDLP
3
0
Ukip
1
+1
Greens
1
0
Other
8
0

Based on the latest projections from Election Forecast, a team of university researchers using polling data to predict how seats will be distributed in the May 7 vote.

More election coverage »

Possible coalitions or alliances

 
Seats
Majority
LD, SNP, Lab
347
22
Grn, SDLP, PC, SNP, Lab
328
3
Grn, PC, SNP, Lab
325
0
SNP, Lab
320
-5
DUP, LD, Con
313
-12
LD, Con
305
-20
Grn, PC, LD, Lab
299
-26
LD, Lab
294
-31
Ukip, DUP, Con
287
-38
DUP, Con
286
-39

According to this projection a hung parliament is likely. There are few viable coalitions, but multiple ad hoc alliances are possible.

If no coalition can form a majority, a “confidence and supply” deal with smaller parties could allow a minority Conservative or Labour government to pass its Queen’s Speech and its Budget. All other issues would then be decided vote by vote.

Polling averages

% intending to vote for a given party

In national polls, which estimate the likely share of vote, the Labour and Conservative parties are neck-and-neck while the UK Independence party has overtaken the Liberal Democrats as the third most-popular party.

Under Britain’s first‑past‑the post electoral system, the popular vote does not translate directly to the distribution of seats in parliament.

The key constituency battles

With the UK’s traditional party system fragmenting, the outcome of this election will be determined by four battles.

Each constituency’s miniature chart compares the result of the 2010 election (or any subsequent by‑election) with the current constituency‑level projection from electionforecast.co.uk.

The SNP surge in Scotland

GainLossHold
SNP48-06
Con1-10
LD0-101
Lab0-383

Dozens of new Scottish National party MPs could soon head south to play a kingmaker role in a hung parliament at Westminster. SNP membership has quadrupled to 100,000 since last year’s independence referendum and polls give it a near 20-point lead over Labour in Scotland. Related article »

Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Airdrie and Shotts
Angus
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Banff and Buchan
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Central Ayrshire
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
Dumfries and Galloway
Dundee West
Dunfermline and West Fife
East Dunbartonshire
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
East Lothian
Edinburgh East
Edinburgh North and Leith
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh West
Falkirk
Glasgow Central
Glasgow East
Glasgow North
Glasgow North West
Glasgow South
Glenrothes
Inverclyde
Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Lanark and Hamilton East
Linlithgow and East Falkirk
Livingston
Midlothian
Moray
Motherwell and Wishaw
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
North Ayrshire and Arran
Ochil and South Perthshire
Orkney and Shetland
Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Perth and North Perthshire
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Stirling
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
West Dunbartonshire

The Tory-Labour marginals

GainLossHold
Lab29-022
Con0-293

Despite the fragmentation of British politics, many of the most competitive constituencies are still contests between the two largest parties. In 2010, the margin between Labour and the Conservatives in 55 constituencies was less than 5 per cent of votes cast. The rise of the UK Independence party and the uncertain distribution of votes from disaffected Liberal Democrat voters will, however, confound fans of the traditional swingometer even in these contests. Related article »

Amber Valley
Bedford
Bolton West
Brentford and Isleworth
Brighton, Kemptown
Broxtowe
Bury North
Carlisle
Dewsbury
Eltham
Great Grimsby
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Halifax
Hastings and Rye
Hendon
Hove
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Lincoln
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Morecambe and Lunesdale
Morley and Outwood
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Nottingham South
Nuneaton
Plymouth, Moor View
Sherwood
Southampton, Itchen
Stroud
Telford
Tooting
Walsall North
Walsall South
Waveney
Weaver Vale
Wirral South

The Lib Dem fight for survival

GainLossHold
Con11-00
Lab9-00
SNP9-00
LD0-2928

Traditionally Britain’s third-largest political party, the Liberal Democrats’ popularity has collapsed since joining the Conservatives in coalition government. The Lib Dems now languish in fourth place in many national polls, trailing the UK Independence party and only just ahead of the Green party. The party is seeking to cling on to as many of its 57 seats as possible, but Labour, the Conservatives and the SNP all expect to make substantial gains at the Lib Dems’ expense. Related article »

Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Birmingham, Yardley
Bradford East
Brecon and Radnorshire
Brent Central
Burnley
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Colchester
East Dunbartonshire
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Edinburgh West
Hazel Grove
Hornsey and Wood Green
Kingston and Surbiton
Leeds North West
Manchester, Withington
Mid Dorset and North Poole
North Norfolk
Orkney and Shetland
Portsmouth South
Solihull
Southport
Sutton and Cheam
Thornbury and Yate
Twickenham
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Westmorland and Lonsdale

Ukip target seats

GainLossHold
Con1-09
Lab0-03
Ukip0-11

The anti-EU, anti-immigration UK Independence party is one of several nationalist, populist parties in Europe benefiting from a rise in anti-establishment feeling. It hopes the general election will confirm its place in the political mainstream. Ukip has so far succeeded primarily by appealing to disaffected Conservative supporters, but is also targeting Labour areas in northern England. Related article »

Boston and Skegness
East Worthing and Shoreham
Forest of Dean
Great Grimsby
North Thanet
Sittingbourne and Sheppey